The defending champion will start as the man to beat. Ryan Villopoto isn't always the fastest on the track, but crucially he does what he has to do, when he has to do it, in order to win championships. It is that ability to accept a defeat but win when the chips are down that makes him the favourite again for 2012. Villopoto gets the job done, he has that little chip on his shoulder and has 100% focus on his job.... and that is how Ryan sees motocross, it isn't fun or a hobby, it is something right now that he is paid to do. He doesn't care about celebrity or hype, he just wants to win, and Villopoto will give everything he has to accomplish that goal.
Chad Reed can never be counted out, he blew some peoples minds last year coming so close to a title on his own team, but it wasn't really a surprise. Reed is always there, he is smart, calculated, headstrong and always in control. This year Reed has a full factory Honda at his disposal, and with Mike Gosselar back in his camp, Reed will be able start the season stronger, and, if he gets his nose in front early he could be hard to stop. Chad forces riders to ride their perfect race to beat him, and it is hard to ride the perfect race seventeen times in a row in supercross.
Ryan Dungey could've have won the Supercross title last year, a mechanical arguably prevented his series win, but the truth is Ryan was always there, but never really there for the title. He one won race all year, and suffered bad starts for a large part of the season. This year is fascinating as Ryan is back with his trusted team manager DeCoster but on a brand new machine with KTM. The diacotemy of familiarity and change is the reverse of last season, but it seems Ryan places DeCoster as more important than the machine, and he has the belief that DeCoster can get this KTM to a place where he can win the Supercross title on it.
With the success DeCoster and Dungey have had in the past, and the success KTM have had in the World Championship it is a recipe for winning US titles - but will they discover the perfect mixture in their first season? Dungey showed he is already close with his performance in the Monster Energy cup, you can never count Ryan out, but he will need to show more aggression, and get better starts compared to 2011, even if the bike is ready to win.
This brings us to James Stewart. Let's start with the obvious, James Stewart's raw speed is absurd. No-one has the raw speed and explosivness out of the corners that James has, but right now the rest are closer to that pace than they ever have been. Stewart needs to ride at 110% to be faster than these guys now, and that is when he makes mistakes. When Stewart didn't ride at 110% the other guys were just as fast and could beat him, when he did ride at 110% to prove a point he crashed. Alot.
Stewart still won races when he found the right balance with himself (and the Yamaha). So he still has what it takes to win. For 2012 he has signed with JGR Yamaha, and is back with his former mechanic Jeremy Albrecht, with whom he had much success with Kawaski. He also has the vast resources of JGR to make the bike more suited to him, so maybe, just maybe, James will refocus 100% on the sport and restablish himself as the the best supercross rider there is. He has no more excuses with that team around him, he can do it, but the question remains, will he accept losing some battles in order to win the war?
The final member of the big five is Mr Trey Canard. The nicest guy in the sport, Canard had been a revelation in his debut season on the 450. A stunning style with memorable scrubs and blazing speed until injury stoppped him, essentially sums up his 2011 supercross season. This year Trey is coming back after his second broken leg, and, if he finds the speed from last year he will be a contender. Trey seems to perform better when the pressure is off, his two championships came when no-one expected him to win. If Trey can take the pressure off himself, just relax, believe, and ride like he can, there is no reason why he can't win this title. If he does there will be no better SX champion for kids to aspire to be.
It is hard to look past these five as the potential champion, but there are plenty of riders who, on their day, will be able to challenge for podiums and wins, especially Josh Grant.
Grant has the talent and speed of the top five, but as of yet he has never been able to put a consistent season together. Knee injuries ruined last season, and he is only now getting back on the back, which doesn't leave him much time to prepare himself or his Jeff Ward racing Kawasaki. Ward has expressed his belief in Josh and insists he is the man to steer Grant in the right direction and show him how to be a consistent top runner and championship challenger. Let's hope so, Josh has too much talent not to be up there.
Davi Millsaps falls into a similar category, this year he is team mates with James Stewart and again, everyone is wondering if this will be the year he can ride to his potential. Like Grant, Davi is coming of injuries, but, like Grant, if everything clicks he has the stuff to run with the top five.
Kevin Windham is always a threat to win races, and it is still great to be able to watch Mr Smooth racing with the latest generation of top riders. On talent alone Windham may be the best, but mentally he has always struggled under pressure, and with a family now, Windham isn't willing to hang it out when he isn't comfortable, but when he is on there is no-one better to watch.
Andrew Short was sixth last year on the 350 KTM, but this season has made the move back to his beloved Honda with the Larry Brooks/ Jeremy McGrath team. Short is solid, professional and consistent but has yet to win a supercross, and that will no doubt be his goal for 2012. However, it is hard to see him bettering his sixth position from last season if the top five stay healthy again, but, with Jeremy McGrath in his corner, Short will be determined to be more than best of the rest this year.
Jake Weimar is the big unknown, he was injured prior to last season and only rode the final few races, this season he is healthy and ready to do battle. Weimer wants to be a regular top five guy, he battled and beat Dungey and Canard in the lites Supercross racs and he believes he can do it again on the 450. He has a great style and technique for supercross, but the second year factory Kawasaki rider really has to prove he can do it this year.
The 2012 supercross season is so stacked, we never even mentioned the consistent and reliable Brett Metcalfe, but Supercross has never been his strong point and top tens and top five will be a success for him.
The two dark horses this year could well be Kyle Chisholm and Justin Brayton.Chisholm is the quiet achiever and is a good bet for top ten this year on Jeff Ward's Kawi team. While Brayton showed good speed last year on the JGR Yamaha, but with Honda he will be expected to be challenging the front guys regularly in the main events, can he step up and deliver? It remains to be seen, but Brayton will give 100%.
Other big names include the fast but fragile Austin Stroupe, Jimmy Albertson, Mike Alessi, Ivan Tedesco, Josh Hansen, Josh Hill, Nico Izzi, Nick Wey, Broc Tickle, Michael Byrne and Ryan Morais. With the series so deep it will be an achievement to make the main if the talent remains injury free, one thing is for sure - starts will be more vital than ever!
Supercross 2012 will be mega, only a month to go...
