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| The bar banging action from Reed, Alessi and Dungey and more is set to continue in 2011 Pic. Paul McCready |
It is hard to know just who the favourite is for the 2011 450 National Championship. Ryan Dungey is the defending champion, Ryan Villopoto just won the Supercross championship, Chad Reed didn’t really get the chance to defend his 2009 outdoor title and moving up is Christophe Pourcel who arguably could have and should have won the last two 250 national titles.
Let’s start with Dungey. The defending champion did not enjoy losing his supercross crown and you can bet the very competitive but quiet Minnesota born Suzuki rider will have revenge on his mind. Dungey is fit, he is fast and he is consistent and smooth, all the ingredients are there but he needs to find good starts again and this year he needs to beat Ryan Villopoto.
Ryan Villopoto has the momentum coming into the outdoor series, and despite Dungey being the defending champion, Villopoto is many people’s favourite to win. Villopoto has just come off his biggest ever championship by winning the most competitive supercross series maybe ever. RV is full of confidence and thanks to Aldon Baker full of fitness. This should scare all his competition, because RV already has three 250 national outdoor titles and dominated in the only 450 outdoor race he has ridden - the opening race at Glen Helen in 2009. Now with Aldon Baker in his corner he is going to be even faster for longer and even more confident. That is a scary thought for any of his competition.
One guy who will not be the slightest bit worried is Chad Reed. Reed is very self confident and mentally strong… and he has the credentials to justify ever inch of his self belief. The Aussie came within four points of winning the 2011 Supercross title on his own team as essentially a privateer. Now with more help from Honda and fully healthy again after last season’s health issues, Reed will no doubt believe that his championship experience and smarts will have him in the hunt coming down to the final round. Count Chad Reed out at your peril, and don’t forget he won Hangtown last year despite all his problems, there is no reason a healthy Reed can’t do it again.
Many people are not counting Christophe Pourcel as a championship threat, but I am counting him as the fourth alien. Just because Pourcel did not race supercross does not mean he has lost the talent that gave him the World MX2 title in 2006, 2x Regional SX championships and the fastest rider in the 250 nationals the last two years. The super smooth and deceptively fast Frenchman won more motos than Dungey in 2009 and more than Canard in 2010 and engine failure and a broken arm are what kept the former World Champ from winning those titles despite still feelings the physical effects of the crash that left him temporarily paralysed in 2007.
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| Christophe Pourcel is moving up the 450s and should not be counted out. Pic. Paul McCready |
Now Pourcel claims the time off from supercross has allowed him to get his health issues fixed, so maybe the US fans will see a fully healthy Pourcel for the first time in his American career. Pourcel is very smart and has a beautiful style, he knows how to win and will be there every weekend. He has raced a 450 before and been very fast, the bike should suit his style even more than the 250. The biggest question mark is not Christophe Pourcel but whether the Motoconcepts team can give Pourcel the support and bike he needs to challenge for the title.
Mike Alessi as usual is going against logical thought. He went with the brand new 350 KTM last year when no-one was on it, but lost his confidence and has switched to the 450 KTM for 2011 again a bike no-one else is racing. But is that really the smartest choice? At time when every other factory rider in the KTM team both in the Gps and America have gone 350 because they believe it is the better bike especially with a years development under it‘s belt, Alessi is now riding a bike that has had no development this year and has no-one of his calibre riding it either, leaving Alessi no comparisons or testing back up. There is no doubt he rides the 450 very very well, but maybe his choice to be the lone 450 wolf in the KTM pack could hurt him. Still Alessi is fast and will give it everything he has, if he gets the starts he can never be counted out for the title and he may renew the Villopoto rivalry from the amateur days this season.
It seem unfair to both Brett Mettcalfe and Andrew Short that they havn’t already been mentioned since they finished second and third in the series last season. Both these guys are consistent, they world hard and get good starts, but that extra piece of magic is missing that they need to be a potential race winner every weekend. Both have yet to prove they can deal with the championship pressure when it really counts. But that isn’t to say this year won’t be the year and both of these deserving riders could potentially break out and deservingly win their first major championship.
Other riders who will be in the mix include Jake Weimer, Christian Craig, Justin Brayton, Davi Millsaps, Tommy Hahn and Kyle Chisholm. It is hard to see these guys as title contenders but on their day they could ruffle some feathers.
There are a few wild card riders who will not challenge for a title due to various circumstance but could challenge for wins at any stage. Trey Canard was in contention for the Supercross title in his rookie year and the 2010 250 outdoor champ would have been a certain title contender in the 450 outdoors but a broken leg has put an end to that dream for this year. Trey however is very determined and he will be battling hard to get some wins when he comes back halfway through the season.
Honda team-mate Josh Grant is another out with injury but again, like Trey, he has speed to burn and can be a threat to win a moto anytime, anywhere.
James Stewart is perhaps the biggest wild card of all - in every sense of the word. The stupidly fast but scarily fragile Floridian refused to compete in the US GP only to announce one week later that he wasn’t ready to race the first round at Hangtown. Surely racing two days at the US GP would have helped James get ready for Hangtown? Unless of course the problems are less bike based and more team based. It seems James is so afraid to lose after his crash happy supercross series that he doesn’t want to race unless in his mind he believes he is going to win.
Stewart has vowed to be a new rider upon his return..but no-one knows when that return will be yet. The problem is that outdoor specialist and teammate Kyle Regal is suffering because he is not able to race his favourite series until James decides James is ready. When these two come back the fans will be the real winners and both will give even more excitement to an already super competitive championship.
So sit back and enjoy what will be a fantastic 450 US National Championship while you can because, before long, you will be on the edge of your seat!
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